Calculation of market demand of China's natural gas industry in 2018

Add Date:2018/8/16    Views: 880

In June 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Opinions on Accelerating the Use of Natural Gas”, proposing that by 2020 and 2030, the proportion of natural gas in primary energy will reach 10% and 15% respectively, with “incremental” as the focus of work, and “price reform”. "For supporting measures.


In March 2017, the four ministries and commissions (Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Energy Bureau, and Ministry of Finance) jointly issued the “Work Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and the Surrounding Areas in 2017”, which was positioned in the “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Air Pollution Transmission Channel”. +26” The city is the scope of implementation of the “coal to gas” policy. It is required to complete 50,000-100,000 “coal to gas” and “coal to electricity” in each city before the end of October 2017, and complete the small coal-fired boiler. Zero" work. Subsequently, the “trickening plan” further refined the requirements and further expanded the elimination range of coal-fired boilers. In December 2017, the "Planning" proposed that by 2021, the "coal to gas" of the residential end + industrial end is expected to bring 23 billion square meters of new gas.


In May 2017, the central government proposed to include 12 of the “2+26” cities in the scope of subsidy pilots. The demonstration period is three years, with 1 billion yuan per year under the municipality, 700 million yuan per year in provincial capital cities, and 500 million yuan per year in prefecture-level cities. Yuan subsidies. Since then, local governments have also introduced subsidy policies: the residents are usually distributed to gas companies in the form of gas subsidies and pipe network construction subsidies, or directly subsidize residential users in the form of gas price subsidies; the industrial end is usually used to replace boiler users. Make a one-time subsidy.


On May 25, 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document requesting that the price of residents be changed from the highest gate price management to the benchmark gate price management. The price will be implemented at the non-residential gas benchmark gate price, up to 20%, and the floating range will not be limit. The adjustment will not exceed 0.35 yuan per square meter, and the remaining price difference will be smoothed out in a timely manner after one year.


Since 2017 is the final year of the first phase of “Gen Shi”, and the national environmental protection policy and environmental supervision are becoming more and more strict, we believe that the scope of the coal-prohibition zone will become more and more large. Considering the demand for coal to gas in the six provinces of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the six provinces have a total population of 146 million people, calculated according to an average of 3.5 people/household, and further assume that coal to electricity and coal to gas account for half of each, a total of 2092 can be generated. Ten thousand households "coal to gas" demand. After deducting 3.19 million households that have already been completed, there are still 17.73 million households in the “coal to gas” space in the six provinces of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.
 
                                      
 
In 2017, the “2+26” city has completed the clean-up of coal-fired boilers of 10 tons/hour and below, and some areas have been expanded to 35 tons/hour. According to the "Clean Heating Plan", by the end of 2021, the "2+26" city will completely eliminate 35 steam tons/hour and below coal-fired boilers. Gas boilers will be one of the main alternatives that will drive the increase in gas volume. Such as the Hangzhou boiler, driven by the "coal to gas" at the industrial end, the sales revenue of boilers in 2017 increased by 47.69%. We believe that 70%-80% of industrial gas, which accounts for the total consumption of natural gas in China, will become an important engine for gas growth under the drive of “coal to gas” at the industrial end.
 
 
According to the “13th Five-Year Plan” of natural gas, by 2020, China’s natural gas accounted for about 10% of the primary energy consumption structure, that is, 360 billion yuan, and its corresponding consumption of 17-20eCARG is 15%, while Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei The implementation of the "coal to gas" policy, the growth rate is expected to be higher than the national average. If the annual growth rate is 18% (Note: 11-16CAGR is 18%), the consumption in 2020 can reach 59.6 billion square meters. According to the heating season consumption accounted for 60% of the whole year, the demand for heating season will reach 297.88 million square meters, and the gap will reach 63.31 million square meters per day, or 27%.


We expect that by 2020, the demand gap in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will still exist. Even if the Sino-Russian East Line, which can only be put into production by the end of 2020, the supply and demand will still reach a tight balance.


According to the data of the National Development and Reform Commission, the current working volume of underground gas storage and the capacity of LNG receiving station can account for 3% and 2.2% of the national consumption, respectively, and the three indicators proposed in the "Opinions" need to form a gas storage capacity to reach consumption. About 16%, the gap is 10.8%. According to 2017 and 2020 consumption of 239.4 billion square meters and 360 billion square meters, the current gas storage capacity and target gas storage capacity are 12.4 billion square meters and 57.6 billion square meters respectively, with a gap of 45.2 billion square meters.